2024 Silicon Metal Market Price Review—Phased Downward Adjustment [SMM Analysis]

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SMM January 17 News: From January to early April 2024, spot silicon metal prices showed a downward trend. The spot price of above-standard #553 silicon metal in east China dropped from 15,600 yuan/mt to 13,250 yuan/mt, a decrease of 2,350 yuan/mt or 15%. In mid-February 2024, during the Chinese New Year holiday, the lack of enthusiasm for downstream order procurement after the holiday, combined with an inventory buildup on the supply side, led to a continuous decline in spot silicon metal prices. In March, silicon prices fell sharply, mainly due to silicon enterprises offering discounts to boost orders and the significant decline in the most-traded silicon futures contract, which jointly drove silicon prices downward.

From mid-April to early June, spot silicon metal prices mostly remained in a sideways trend. On one hand, the sluggish market led to production cuts or suspensions among small and medium-sized silicon enterprises, and silicon producers were reluctant to continue offering discounts. On the other hand, the futures market stabilized and rebounded, stimulating transactions for just-in-time orders. However, the rise in futures prices did not trigger a rebound in the spot market, and spot silicon prices remained stable. From the perspective of supply-demand structure, there was a shortfall of nearly 30,000 mt in April, but supply and demand turned to a surplus in May. With ample in-plant and social inventories, the short-term minor shortfall had no significant impact on the market's supply-demand capacity, leaving the spot silicon metal market in a stalemate.

From mid-June to August, spot silicon metal prices declined again. The spot price of above-standard #553 silicon metal in east China fell from 13,100 yuan/mt to 11,500 yuan/mt, a decrease of 1,600 yuan/mt or 12%. In May, spot prices did not follow the rise in futures prices. From June to July, the operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan gradually recovered to normal levels for the rainy season. Meanwhile, demand for silicon metal even showed signs of contraction. On the cost side, the prices of raw materials such as silicon coal and electrodes declined, reducing costs. The accelerated decline in futures market prices, combined with multiple bearish factors, drove spot silicon prices downward.

From late August to early November, spot silicon metal prices fluctuated slightly upward. The spot price of above-standard #553 silicon metal in east China rose to 11,850 yuan/mt, an increase of 350 yuan/mt. From the perspective of supply-demand balance, during this period, silicon metal experienced a broad inventory buildup. However, spot silicon metal prices still showed a slight upward trend. On one hand, silicon enterprises were producing for delivery, limiting the liquidity of this portion of supply. On the other hand, top-tier enterprises, which hold a high proportion of capacity, significantly influenced supply liquidity through their willingness to sell. Additionally, the phased willingness of silicon enterprises to sell after previous price declines also supported the short-term slight upward trend.

From late November 2024 to mid-January 2025, spot silicon metal prices continued to decline. The spot price of above-standard #553 silicon metal in east China fell from 11,850 yuan/mt to 10,850 yuan/mt, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/mt or 8%. The futures market moved in tandem with the spot market, with the futures market experiencing a larger decline, further stimulating spot price drops. The lowest point of the most-traded silicon futures contract fell to 10,330 yuan/mt, a decrease of 22%. The primary fundamental factor behind this price decline was the decrease in demand for polysilicon on the demand side. SMM reported that polysilicon production in December was 93,000 mt, a 38% reduction compared to July. Although there was also a reduction on the supply side, the weak supply-demand dynamics kept silicon prices in a bearish trend.

From January 28 to February 4, during the Chinese New Year holiday, spot market transactions gradually concluded in the week before the holiday. After the holiday, market transactions gradually resumed, and activity is expected to pick up around the Lantern Festival. The silicon metal industry is undergoing a phase of cyclical adjustment. Without external unexpected events, there is limited support for price increases based on fundamentals in Q1, and market sentiment remains cautious.

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